Stimulus Issue #2

I outlined some of my disappointment with the stimulus' lack of WPA like make-work programs in an earlier blog this week. My other main issue is with the budget gapping portion of the bill.

The NYC government is getting ready to announce 20k across the board layoffs in local govt services. Writ small this means that the stimulus will have to create 20k new jobs just to get back to even.

Why not give the money to the local and state govts with the stipulation that it is used to fill budget gaps that would otherwise result in layoffs? Wouldn't that be easier than trying to find another bridge for 20k people to build?

Baron, Robber

$18.4B? I guess. I'm a trader and eternal capitalist and even I'M APPALLED.

You're reeling - yes even you Wells - and your insurance brethren may be in a worse shape than you and your argument for paying out out 2006 like bonuses is talent retention?

Here's my .02:

Your Talent: They now holds the honor of worst risk managers ever...literally. And it turns out their success over the last 3 years was bubble driven. Which means, literally, anyone could have done what they did. You know. Make up stuff no one understands. Securitize it. And convince people it's worth more than it is. Talent? I guess.

Retention: In case you didn't notice, it's a buyers market right now. That includes for skilled finance professionals. So instead of paying inordinate bonuses, just let 'em walk. You can get the same skill for cheaper tomorrow. Kinda like your stock.

It seems you are using capitalism to abuse your shareholders and in the instance of TARP funded institutions the American taxpayers. In case you haven't noticed you are not the rockstars of the business world you're the bane of it's existence.

You took a perfectly good product, the mortgage backed security, and pumped it so full of andro that it literally burst. That's like Detroit taking the SUV, putting turbo rockets on the side and watching as the world's highways turn into a bloodbath. And then asking for a bonus. Way to go!

Humor: Can I hit you back girl?

"Mom put me in time out, this is bulls%$#...." Hahahahahaha!!!!

Minnesota: I Like This

It reminds me of what leadership is really about. Leading.

VIRGINIA, Minn. - The Virginia mayor and City Council members are sharing the budget pain by voting to take 10 percent pay cuts.

Virginia's elected officials voted unanimously, but informally, for the cut during a meeting Monday. They are expected to make it official during a meeting Tuesday night.

To be sure the overall decrease from the base is nominal but nonetheless it's the 'leaderly' thing to do.

Article here

Another Bright Idea

Here is my first creative idea (in conjunction with shovel ready and budget gapping) for make-work stimulation:

Education Aids: Two of my state's biggest firms, Target and Best Buy, are laying off more employees this week. A good percentage of these employees are young and sophisticated. Why not create a make-work program that places a under 28 college educated professional in the classroom of any public school for a year. This would be different than a traditional teacher's assistant and would probably be well received by K-12 students seeking a different PoV. A $50B program could create 1.6M+ jobs at an average salary of $30k. I know the salary pails in comparison to private salaries but I bet dollars to donuts those with limited prospects for the next 12 months would jump at the opportunity! Everyone can't build a bridge. This program would fill up and BANG...like that 1M jobs that have value are created.

I think it would work. I'm going to bundle it with a few other of my ideas and email it to Amy Klobuchar and Keith Ellison and Norm Coleman. If you like it send it to your congressperson too! Maybe it can make it into Stimulus Part II - The Sequel coming October 2010

American People.

I love it, I absolutely love it when DC pols say "I'm doing what's best for the American people."

What they should say is "I'm doing what's best for my career, then for my party and lastly for those people who voted for me. And if you didn't vote for me, hopefully it helps you too."

Honestly, that would be really refreshing to hear.

Minnesota: Budget Woes

Minnesota policymakers are struggling with the future of state budgeting. Like all other states they will get bailed out by the feds this time. But this same massive shortfall happened in 2003. And will happen again if they don't fix the core problem. Spending. In 2003 they used tobacco suit settlements to fill the gap and like I said, the feds will fill the ditch this time. But what I'm wondering is what happens in 2013 or 2015 when the feds and big tobacco's aren't around?

Intuitively you would think policymakers would get long term spending inline with projected revenues. You would think. I've said it once I'll say it again, business people in general would make much better politicians than lawyers. They don't spend more than they take in. If they do they fail. Simple. The finance part of of govt is and always will be superordinate to actual law making always.

From the Star Tribune

"The fiscally appropriate thing to do would be to create a permanent solution." But it's hard to sell painful long-term solutions when quick fixes are at hand, even though an aging population means the state's long-range budget outlook is troubled.

Really Obama?

Poking China in the eye over currency manipulation?

Smoot-Hawley like protectionist rhetoric for US industry?

I guess.

Dude I know you're a trained lawyer and the whole P&L, global business, supply-demand thing isn't really your bag. That's cool. I still confuse post hoc with prima facie, so we're even.

But I must admit your rhetoric has me on edge. I wrote yesterday on learning from the 1930's. And I think you should take a look. It centered on the failure of modern day markets and consumers to learn from the late 1920's greed and risk that caused the depression. But the spirit of the article - learning from the past - is your main takeaway as the 3rd leg of the capitalist triumvirate...govt.

Your recent rhetoric is straight out of the 'I don't understand commerce' handbook that past pols used in economic downturns. Burn it. Limiting trade and ostracizing other economic powers will only make things worse. Especially since exports will play a signifcant part of our resurgence. You don't have to placate labor with your rhetoric. You're the President now. In the end all they want are jobs and fair pay. It may take time, but on the right terms those jobs will come back online and you will be hailed. Limiting trade is the wrong term and a sure fire way to a quick 2012 exit.

This liberal anti-trade meme plays well in a healthy economy when corporations are flush, and stock prices soaring. But investors (rich people) and businesses (rich people) aren't going to put up with this crap during a once in a century downturn. They're scared too. And when you talk about limiting their options to make money by limiting trade you force them back to the sidelines...with their money! Once there they will simply sit on the sidelines and wait you out. Hear me loud and clear. This is a waiting game you will lose.

You and I and Geithner and Summers and Bernanke and any MBA know we need rich people to ultimately pull us out of this. I don't have $125K to pay myself to consult on a supply chain but Nike does. The unions don't have $40K to pay a worker to build beams but US Steel does. US Steel and Nike make money through trade. Limiting their trade will ultimately limit jobs. The laymen may really think we can indefinitely print money for stimulus year over year but you and I know better. Get your business bona fides up and do it quickly!

Those who don't....

I watched FDR's first inaugural address yesterday and gleaned five major themes from his speech:

1. Better supervision of banks
2. Reckless speculation with others money
3. A crisis of our own doing
4. Putting people back to work
5. Return to personal responsibility

Sound familiar?

The trite aphorism - those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it - permeated my thoughts all day yesterday.

Well not so much the learning part. You see greed, which drove this crisis from all sides is a powerful motivator that genuflects only to fear. It trumps circumspection all day everyday. So it's no suprise that in the absence of fear (it's not my money) there wasn't anything powerful enough to motivate us to learn. And we didn't.

But it's the consequent of that cliche, the repeat part...that gives me pause. Bear with my abstraction. In 1933 there was no 1935. No 1937. No 1943. That is, there was only an unwritten future. A future that promised better times, jobs and a return to normalcy. A normalcy that wasn't 1935 or '37 or '43.

Well, today there is no 2011, or 2013 or 2020 just a future that promises better times, jobs and a return to normalcy....



FDR's 1933 Inaugural Address

Darkside

I and the public know what all schoolchildren learn.
Those to whom evil is done do evil in return.
dddddddddddddddddddddddddddddd-W. H. Auden

I wondered at the time of the alleged atrocities what those innocent (yes there were innocent detainees) persons at Abu Ghraib and Gitmo felt. Being plucked off the streets of their hometown and imprisoned as a result of wrong place wrong time or mistaken identity or specious intel. And given no recourse.

I'm not a leftie. I understand the necessity of war. I understand what war means. I understand that the bright side of safety has a dark side. A darkside most Americans don't want to think about. A dark side that includes dead children, rape, looting, torture and collateral damage. A darkside that didn't begin with Abu Ghraib. A darkside that won't end with Barack Obama.

This darkside is old. It takes root before ancient Pelopenessus spans middle age Jerusalem and runs through modern day Germany. This darkside is as old as man.

I wonder if this darkside will manifest itself anew in former civilians. Civilians that had good intentions and families and pride. Civilians that had dreams and plans and hope. Civilians that had an unfortunate run in with the darkside.

Bad Economic News? I guess.

Only on CNBC can good news be hyperbolized into bad...only on CNBC.

Housing starts, a favored economic indicator of activity, was down for the period. Anything being 'down' sounds bad to the accidental economist, but to the initiated, who learned to put A and B together in the second grade it's not so bad.

The reason this is GOOD news, is because we currently have a 6 month supply of houses on the market that needs to be worked off (sold) before the economy can truly bottom. Adding to existing inventory will both forestall that turnover and further weaken existing prices. So the fact that we added fewer homes is a positive.

Sometimes I forget news is a business, and purposely scaring people seems to be good for the P&L.

BIG PICTURE

What's the position you hold?

A lot of speculation on the monies I've made.
Honey's I've slayed
How is he for real?
Is that dude really paid?
KKKKKKKKKKKKK-Jay Z

I'm listening to the confirmation of Tim Geithner, O's choice for the position of Treasury Secretary. I'll readily admit that if he's good enough for O than he's good enough for me. But I, like some Rs, have concerns about dude. Mainly, why did he only go back and pay taxes AFTER he was tapped for Treasury Secretary?

Statute of limitations or not, if you in good faith underpaid taxes on various sources of income wouldn't the natural inclination be to make it right...in good faith?

Dear Barack....

Dear President Obama-

Please focus on the moment and not the greatness.

Unlike great athletes, entertainers or businessmen, great presidencies are driven by responses to external events. There is no chance to manufacture a knockout, merger or hit single that transcends time. You take what the position gives you. And if you're human, you hope and pray it's not much. If the past 6 years have given us anything, it's a case study in the folly of attempting to manufacture greatness.

President Bush desperately wanted to be a war president in the mold of Washington, Lincoln and FDR, so he manufactured a war, ostensibly to feed that desire. But he was confused. Revolution, emancipation and democracy were watershed moments to which greatness reluctantly rose, not events manufactured with ersatz greatness in mind. As such he leaves office en route to a potential worst ever label all but ensured for the existence of the union.

What's weird is that unlike Washington, Lincoln and FDR who each struggled with recalcitrant citizenry, his watershed moment - wished upon no one - actually saw him gain the full support of the nation in the blink of an eye. What's weirder is that had he focused more on the moment and less on legacy. More on effectively dealing with this new threat and less on 2050 history textbooks, he would be leaving, destined for greatness.

So again, I implore you to focus on your moment or moments as it may prove. Arab Radicalism? Depression?? TBD??? Whatever it is focus on it. Your legacy, like Washington, Lincoln and FDR will write itself.

Okay. I get it.

CNN and MSNBC I get it. MLK. Obama. Black. Historic. President.

Now let's move on with some real analysis. There are Americans, of every stripe, whose concern extends to more important matters such as the looming depression, middle east affairs and the Russo-China undercurrent.

10 hours of black punditry and civil rights anecdotes, followed by another 10 hours of the same, concluded by 10 more hours is a bit much.

Depression Economics - A harsh reality

From my hometown newspaper. Area high schools are considering eliminating sports and other extra curriculars as a way to deal with the depression. I can't blame them, and assume other local and state governments are taking similar actions.

Some of the locals are upset and are opining on how extra curriculars are an essential part of secondary education (erroneous) and shouldn't be on the chopping block, but I surmise these persons have limited background in finance and economics - government style. My 101 refresher follows:

Bonds notwithstanding, govt budgets are financed with tax receipts. Tax receipts from people and businesses. With income tax revenue in decline because of skyrocketing unemployment AND property tax revenue down as a result of spiraling home prices AND business tax receipts down as a result of decreased spending then local and state governments TAX RECEIPTS will be down. In which case spending has to follow.

What should upset locals is that between the years of 2003-2007 when almost every state and major municipality saw relative highs in tax revenues the mayors, councils, legislatures and governors spent like drunken sailors (or foolishly, foolishly cut taxes) with little foresight for a predictable downturn. Of course said locals, like the rest of us, derived benefit (nominal or otherwise) from the largess of this spending spree. And why fuss when the spigot is flowing right? You fuss because of the nasty hangover a.k.a the Greater Depression.

Happy Friday!

I don't know how the psychology of this works, but the crash and subsequent survival off those on Flight 1549 yesterday has put me in a really good mood!

Empirically it seems that America needed a feel good story like this!!!

My world's upside down

It's weird. This morning there were 146 people that woke up and did the same thing as me. Got coffee, took a cab, watched the news, had lunch, laughed with friends, sent emails, made plans and talked with loved ones. But at 3:03 PM EST they crashed into the Hudson River.

Who really knows anything....


When the world keeps spinning round
My world's upside down
And I wouldn't change a thing
I've got nothing else to lose
I lost it all when I found you
And I wouldn't change a thing

Just Say No!

I hope the congress votes NOT to pass the TARP II for Bush-Obama at this time. TARP I was fear mongered into existence and we need to tap the brakes and think about this a little more.

I'm still for the stimulus and TARP II, but let's be more contemplative this time. There's a huge difference between fear and urgency. And as with all crises, you only get a few dumb moves before you lose.

There is a WAY out of this mess, passing weekend legislation and hurrying through things is not it.

Btw this opinion is subject to change.

Fear only makes it worse

I continue to hear ad nauseam that businesses are cutting, cutting, cutting everything and everywhere in order to remain solvent. Fine. But be advised. This will only make the depression and by extension their business worse. Much worse.

I've blogged on the negative feedback loop before, but it's worth touching again. A negative feedback loop is when a negatively impacted Action-A negatively impacts Action-B which in turn negatively impacts Action-A, and so on. I actually think businesses, with their record massive layoffs and reductions in capex, are initiating the feedback loop, and in turn kickstarting a serious depression.

Businesses shouldn't be so quick to layoff the masses and slash capex based on a gloomy 2009, because by doing so they only ensure a gloomy 2009. If we get 3M more layoffs, do you think 2009 GDP grows or severely declines??? If GDP declines, what are the chances that any business has seen material P&L growth.

The economically uninitiated think the $1T stimulus will return our economy to 2005...it won't. The stimulus may keep 2M jobs losses from becoming 3M but in the end it will only make things less bad. Business, drive, innovation, creativity and risk will make things better, not Barak Obama.