Awesome-sauce Credit Crisis Vid

By far the best video outlining the credit crisis I've seen.


The Crisis of Credit Visualized from Jonathan Jarvis on Vimeo.

Sunday Nigh Hilarity

Watch them both

On Markets

I've been thinking for a couple weeks that we were simply in a bear market rally and we would soon return to what has been a normal status over the last six months - panicked selling. But alas after the first full week of earnings the market finds itself in pretty decent shape (above 800 DOW and 850 S&P) and the banks, at least the majors, are propping up pretty well so I'm ready to declare this bear market over (he says the day before the worst selloff in market history).

I know that the majors are benefiting from wildly usurious arb rates (borrowing money at little costs, selling at at ridiculous costs - see your last credit card bill rate) but nonetheless they are at least reporting better and surprising to the upside or less downside I should say which is a good thing in this milieu.

On a personal note the lack of volatility isn't necessarily a good thing for me, but I've developed a pretty good strategy for trading the markets in a mildly calm phase so we'll see. Unlike most traders, I would rather we have a stable market where people's 401ks are returning to normal than have a volatile market where I'm making out like a bandit but 50 and 60 year old retirees are thinking about eating catfood...guess I could never make it on the real Wall Street.

Links:

The Vix

S&P 500

Somebody ate this food

You can forward to the 2:00 minute mark to watch the raw video. It is totally disgusting but it makes you SERIOUSLY think twice about eating takeout food. This in conjunction with the KFC bath tub incident last year have me reconsidering fast food entirely. Way to go Domino's you've got super quality employees. I leave the NC rejoinder alone for now since I went to school there, but you can draw your own conclusions.

Firms at the corporate and franchise level should really do a better job of quality control, better processes, better procedures and better hiring. Disgusting.

Fomentation

I hate to be Debbie Downer, but I have a fear that nothing good will come of all of this fake outrage regarding Obama being a socialist, muslim, black, etc disguised as fake outrage against taxes (for which 95% of the electorate has had theirs lowered btw).

What do you mean nothing good Ryan? This anti-Obama (b/c he's black be real) outrage has been fomenting since the latter stages of the campaign when it became clear that McCain would lose. I thought it was dangerous then and think it's even more dangerous now. Mainly because 3 Police Officers - COPS mind you - were shot dead in cold blood by a man claiming he killed them because Obama was going to take his guns, which was no doubt fomented by talking heads and irresponsible pols.

I'm all for public demonstration and citizen involvement because it makes for a GREAT POLITICAL SYSTEM. But when politicians who lost decide to advocate for the violent overthrow of an elected govt or threaten secession because they simply DON'T LIKE the person who was elected you're asking for trouble.

There are always people out there who are looking for an excuse to use violence. Whether that be the gang banger in South Central or Cletus Jethro in the backwoods. It's irresponsible for any person who has voice with these audiences to advocate violence. It's LUDICROUS and borderline criminal for elected pols and newsies to advocate violence...openly.

I pray and hope that this violent anger quells and cooler heads prevail, but it seems like it's almost strategic in nature by the svengalis calling the shots and I only fear it will get worse.

Yar Matey

I was overjoyed Sunday morning to hear that Richard Phillips the Captain of the Maersk ship that encountered pirates late last week had been rescued. His continuous attempts to escape on his own let me know last week that dude was a fighter and with the NAVY moving in I knew this was going to come to a resolution soon.

I'm a little disheartened though by the woeful display of ignorance, war baiting and politicization of this pirate fracas by some. Ignorance in that the pirates clearly are not terrorist. That is they are taking booty and kidnapping for ransom. Not blowing themselves up or plotting to kill citizens in the name of a deity or nationalism. War baiting in that there is absolutely NO REASON to declare WAR on Somalia, unless that is you're simply a bloodthirsty talking head whose fake I'm-a-tough-guy-and-I-bleed-red-white-and-blue identity rests with other people's families and friends actually doing the bleeding. Politicization in that this pirate dust up in no way buttresses the argument for the same old defense spending playbook, if anything it actually speaks to reassessing the way we 'do business.'

Another W

An Easter morning win is a good way to start out the day. The computer had me on the ropes for a little while but I was able to regain the advantage and tick out a win. I usually increase my chances of winning (v the computer or a human) when I'm able to trade Queen for Queen. Today I figured out why that is. It's because I'm not that smart. Seriously. The Queen with her ability to shapeshift into most pieces on the board presents way to many options for my non algorithmic brain to consider on a per move basis. When I'm able to eliminate or trade her, the game becomes a lot more linear in terms of evaluating all the options. Anyways, my high school hoops coach used to say any win is a good win. I echo those sentiments here. Maybe I'll start learning to play better with her on the board.

Drunk Drivers Are Pretty Douchey

By now you've heard the story of Nick Adenhart, the upstart 22 year old pitcher for the LA Angels, who today undoubtedly lays cold on a slab in LA County due to his untimely death at the hands of a suspected drunk driver.

I try to refrain from showing much anger on this blog, because as a general rule I recognize that nothing much goods comes from being angry, at least for me. But everytime I hear a story of some innocent person dying at the hands of a drunk driver or serial texter or any other idiot who thinks they can pilot a two ton vehicle at speeds in excess of 50mph without complete focus it seriously upsets me.

While I don't forgive serial texters or the other idiots (makeup, fussing with children, etc) there dereliction and negligence is somewhat easier to understand if you assume they didn't start out driving with those impairments. But a drunk. A person who thinks it's cool to go get loaded and then drive knows EXACTLY what they're doing. Exactly. They know they're impaired, as they've undoubtedly been before. They know they shouldn't be driving, as they've undoubtedly done before. And they know that drunk drivers kill people, as they've undoubtedly seen before. But in spite of all of that they drive anyway. In college a friend suggested that my animus towards drunk drivers was guided largely by the fact that I don't drink. I don't know if that is totally true, I have many many friends that drink and some family members too (I suspect), for me the animus comes from drunks crapping in the face of a very simple risk/reward proposition.

Proposition - Don't drive drunk like a little punk would do.

Risk - I have to walk home or call my girl or buddy to come pick me up or call a cab .

Reward - NOBODY DIES AT MY HANDS TONIGHT

As a trader I've trained myself to recognize advantageous risk reward propositions, this one seems to have massive upside and little to no, and by no I literally mean zero, downside. I would take this trade...if I were a drunk douche.

Why any punk takes the other side of this trade is beyond me, I guess they have a burning desire to kill fiances, sisters, brothers, mothers, fathers, best friends, buddies, girlfriends and boyfriends. I guess in some drunk bizarro world killing these people is considered cool...I guess.

O'Donnell v Buchanan

Good debate on Obama's upcoming visit to Notre Dame...

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

Ken Blackwell

Ken Blackwell has no debate skills at all, absolutely none. I just saw him get taken apart by Chris Hitchens. He reverted to the usual I'm in way over my head and getting sonned tactics, such as fake laughing, fillibustering, strawmanning and reverting back to ersatz hypotheses that no one is refuting.

Ken Blackwell I salute your gross debate incompetence.

Charlie Norris

The one good thing about day trading is you can make money on your own in a down economy but a necessary and unfortunate precondition to that you have to watch CNBC all day. As such you get incredible free insight from experienced traders and investors such as James Cramer, Karen Finerman, Jeff Macke and one Chuck Norris. What's that? Charlie Norris of Bruce Lee beat down fame you ask? Yes. Apparently banking analyst is among his many talents.

What gets me is not that initiated or sophisticated traders, bloggers, professionals, etc of any stripe or political persuasion will listen to him, it's that those who don't fit that category will. They will take his analysis serious as if he knows what he speaks, which will only encourage him to continue opining nonsensically. My favorite? You guessed it: According to Chuck the government should have stayed out of the mess in September and let the free markets work - surprise!

Way to Go Sparty

Raymar Morgan is the reason that I'm running 38 out of 41 in my pool and losing to chicks who literally pick teams based on mascots, locale and team colors. This has got to stop.

On the other hand I was more than excited to see Sparty get it done last night against Connecticut. Hopefully they can hand the Heels a loss tomorrow night.

Oh yeah...Darrell Summers get it young fella'. Anytime you wham on Stan the Man Robinson you've got hops.

Also was it just me or did it look like Sparty wanted a piece of the Huskies in the end of the half fracas b/t Adrien and Walton?

Final Four Analysis

Michigan State: My brother played in the Big Ten (All Conference Twice) and as such I got a front row view of Raymar Morgan thrice as a freshman. I was very impressed. He came off of pin downs like a pro, had great form on his jumper, could post you, handle and play above the rim. I thought at the time he'd be gone after his sophomore year. I was wrong. In the two subsequent years, I think it's safe to assume Morgan has not lived up to Sparty's expectations. Unfortunately the only way they beat UConn today is if he does. Summers, Allen and Roe are too inexperienced to get it done and Kalin Lucas is good, but not good enough to beat that team by himself.

UConn: When Dyson went out, I thought there was no way UConn was gonna get to the Final Four. AJ Price proved me wrong. This guy has stepped up his game big time and I actually think he is the best point guard in the Final Four (sorry Lawson). This guy has great size, speed and when he's nailing threes forget about it. Thabeet, Adrien and Robinson will be an athletic load up front and I expect them to handle Sparty and give UNC all they can handle in the championship. A championship game b/t UConn and UNC with Dyson would have been awesome. That way Dyson could have completely embarassed the overrated guard aka Wayne Ellington.

UNC: I like Ty Lawson and I like UNC's depth. I think they will beat Villanova but they will get all they can handle from the scappy Cats. I'm always amazed at how Roy Williams is able to get 7-8 All America caliber players to play together. While Lawson is a load offensively I actually think Danny Green will be the key for them coming out of this weekend with a championship. He's actually their 3rd best player (behind Lawson/Hansborough) but their most versatile scorer.

Nova: Scottie Reynolds will give UNC all they can handle. Unfortunately they just lack the size and their perimeter scorers (sans Reynolds) aren't of sufficient quality to put consistent pressure on UNC for 40 minutes. People have compared this team to their 2005 Sweet 16 team that included Randy Foye, Allan Ray and Kyle Lowry but they're not. Allan Ray was a knock down jump shooter and Foye and Lowry could keep anyone on their heels. That is how they were able to stay with Carolina back in 2005 (they actually won, but the ref called a bogus travel instead of foul on Melvin Scott, but I digress.)

I've got Carolina and UConn advancing from tonight with UNC winning Monday night. But it should be a quality Saturday of basketball. As a former player you can always appreciate this event because next to playing in the league it's every schoolboy's dream to play in this event.

$20,000.00

This is how much money I left on the table today with my Research in Motion (RIMM) trade. For those of you who don't know RIMM is owner of the Blackberry and apparently Q1 sales were literally off the charts. Of course being a diligent, well researched trader I knew this yesterday and went long this morning. But when it came time to hedge for the overnights I punked out and cashed in my chips. What a mistake! I just checked the aftermarket price. $60 and change. Up almost $11 from the 4PM close.

I took a $10K hit in February and it has made me seriously gun shy. The saying confidence is everything is never more truer in trading. Maybe tomorrow I can find a trade that brings back my confidence. Maybe.

Really?

Really John McCain? Really? A posthumous pardon of an erstwhile turn of the century boxer? I guess. Not that the conviction of Jack Johnson wasn't flat our wrong in 1913, but this would have meant a lot more coming from you say back in 1980. It just seems like grandstanding now, but I digress (not really, I don't really digress, I just say that to seem more effacing.)

On another note, if we spent time pardoning all the wrongful convictions from 1865 through say 1965 and retrying the wrongful acquittals we would literally waste hundreds of millions of dollars. Probably not the smartest use of funds during a Repression.

Read more in the hometown Strib.

No-bama

You've no doubt heard by now that the White House forced the resignation of Rick Wagoner, the CEO of General Motors, and are essentially forcing Chrysler to merge with Fiat an Italian automaker.

Now, like I've said with the banks, I'm all for equity holders or capital backers taking a hard line with the entities that they are funding, but even I've got to tap the brakes on these most recent moves. Obama and the D's continue to echo the fact that they have no intention in having the govt run these businesses but forcing out the CEO of one and pressing the merger of another sure sounds like the govt calling the shots, especially since it's rumored the boards were against both.

My preference would have been for Geithner and Obama to either provide the funding based on the feasibility of the plans GM and Chrylser put forth or either deny the funding and wordsmith an orderly bankruptcy where they can shed their crushing debt and legacy contracts and move quickly back to free enterprise. Now to be sure, I think Wagoner has been pedestrian at best, but as most businesspeople know CEO's are figureheads who garner way to much credit and bread (I'm looking at you Jack Welch) when things are good and too much blame and still too much bread when things are bad.

But his 'pedestrianess' if you will, is something that should be evaluated by GM's board, however 'cronyistic' their makeup. The govt really has no place making operational decisions and as a progressive capitalist this kinda scares me. I wish there were a few other business D's sounding off on this truly slippery slope.

How can I move on when I'm still in love with you?

Listen to this guy and tell me he doesn't sound like John Legend??? I heard this song in the car today on my way to workout and thought "Wow John Legend has gone a little pop but the base riff is still banging and I like the story he's telling."

Imagine my suprise when I looked it up to find it was a band from Ireland! Anyways like I said I like the story dude tells, it reminds me of the first girl I fell in love with, my first mix cd, my first heartfelt poem (lol) and how douchey I was at 24. She was beautiful and perfect and fragile in every way, and I was a douche who couldn't see past his own ego.

Enough cathartic digression, I'll be back on point tomorrow with my usual cogent economic and political analysis. For now check the The Script all the way from Dublin.

Monday Morning Hilarity

This is hilarious!!!

Funny Stuff: What if Teenwolf was...

...a shooting guard for your favorite NCAA team? Chances are they would be headed to the Final Four right about now. Dude could flat out hoop! He had handle, superior athleticism and leadership. Way to go TW, way to go!

And She's Off.....

Reserve Currency: A fiat currency that is held in significant amounts by governments and nations throughout the world.

Fiat Currency: Essentially paper money declared by a government as legal tender.

A couple of days ago China's Finance Minister, backed by the IMF said (paraphrasing) that the world should move towards a new reserve currency. That is, foreign governments like China, Japan, Eurozone, Latin America, Russia should lessen their reliance on the US dollar as their main currency reserve.

Well Michelle Bachman of Minnesota either purposely made up her own story or completely misunderstood the IMF and the Chinese Finance Minister, because she is off to the races on one of her 'I love America more than you' crusades, as if the rest of us are just here out of obligation.

President Obama, Tim Geithner and Ben Bernanke have clearly stated they have no intention of replacing the dollar (our fiat currency) with one global currency. Nor has any other major economic power even suggested this (remember China suggested reserve currency).

But the facts didn't stop Michelle. As usual she created a pretty cool strawman and proceeded to show the rest of us that her 'True Blue Americanisim' exceeded the rational populations by leaps and bounds. She has called for a bill that would essentially make it illegal to replace the dollar, again even though no one ever suggested otherwise.

Ignorance is not cool, be cool.