Shuffled the iPod....

...and heard a song I hadn't heard in probably six months. The line "somewhere we live inside" is particularly apt as I wrestle with being fourteen months away from age 30 and the comfort of job, paradigm and security sit atop one shoulder and desire, goals and dreams sit atop the other. All compounded by an economy that may ultimately deny both. Anyways it's Switchfoot, Meant to Live circa 2000???

Budget Analysis - First Glance

I've yet to dig into the administration's new budget but based on the blogs and cable chatter the first talking point seems to be the material change in the tax write offs for charitable contributions. Administration opposition seems ready to make hay claiming that Obama just has single handedly driven charitable contributions off a cliff!

While this blog has nowhere the influence of MSNBC, Atlantic or Fox News I would hope my readers would ask themselves this question:

Am I going to give less to my church, synagogue, Red Cross, women's shelter or cancer foundation simply because I can't write off as much?

And if I am what does it say about me that I only give to charity to decrease my taxes???

McCain

Watch as McCain jabs Obama on the costs of Marine One which is brilliantly parried in humor by The President. Then check out commenter 'The DesperateBlogger' over at the HuffPo as he weighs in with a priceless comment




"Perhaps the Senator can save the taxpayers even more money by volunteering to serve as the President's pilot. Oh yeah...never mind." -Desperate Blogger

Again with the memes CNBC?

The markets, and by the markets I mean CNBC and their chosen "analysts" are so full of crap. The S&P was down 10% the last 5, that's right 5, trading days and when I woke up this morning I knew what every other trader knew. We were oversold and a bounce was coming.

According to CNBC minions the 200+ bounce we got is because Bernanke provided details that both Obama and Geithner did not. I just finished hearing an analyst ruminate for 5 minutes on how Bernanke is providing clarity that the administration and treasury can't. When pressed on the exact detail Benrnake provided he cited 'no nationalization'.

No s%#. This is the same detail that Geithner provided over a week ago. And Bob Gibbs has been echoing ad nauseam. I guess CNBC.

This meme that somehow Bernanke said anything more than Geithner said will take hold and by 9AM tomorrow you'll hear every conservative shouting "details and clarity" from the roof tops regardless of how blatantly fallacious it is.

The Rickster

It's funny how Rick Santelli can at once be against tax payer dollars going to help middle and working class homeowners and for tax payer dollars going to continued 6 and 7 figure Wall Street paychecks and bonuses. To juxtapose Rick's positions more clearly:

Against: Giving John Doe $30k of taxpayer funds to ensure they can stay in their home.

For: Giving John Thain (former head of Merrill) $121M of taxpayer funds to ensure he and his top lieutenants bonused themselves "at market value" during the worst economic crisis in modern history.

It seems his position is less principled and more class based. He's fine with Thain getting millions for his buddies because he wanted to be Thain. He wanted to climb the corporate ladder and lead a multinational financier but forever whatever reason could only rise to tv analyst. The funny thing is the people that think like this (I'm looking at you CNBC) delude themselves in thinking they are in any measure closer to the overclass than the middle class.

*Sometimes I sing this in the shower

I was listening to some classic music (okay classic for me) last night. It included Jodeci's Get on Up and Toni Tone Tony's Feels Good but this was one of my 90's favorite.



*What? I thought everybody sung in the shower.

Come on Big Ten...Really?

Illinois and Penn State men's hoops have just shown us why the Big Ten is at the bottom of the barrel of the top six conferences (PAC, East, 12, SEC, ACC).

I turn on the tv to watch some hoops while I savor some delicious chow. I skim pass the Illinois game, see the score is 33 - 34 and think to myself "it's still early and it's Penn State besides." Then on my skim back down a minute later and I see the game clock at 45 seconds and the score now resting at 33 - 37. "Are you kidding me?" I say outloud to no one imparticular "Wisconsin doesn't even play that slow."

The Big Ten should be renamed the Atlantic 10.

Moral Hazard

There seems to be a number of people arguing against the just revealed plan to pump $75B into mortgage relief. This seems to serve two purposes, one of which I support.

1. The first purpose is to provide critical and well thought out feedback to those crafting the plan (Geithner, Summers, Volcker, et al). This is important when crafting any strategy as it is plausible that people miss things.

2. The second purpose seems to be another attempt to derail all things Obama by creating false outrage regarding moral hazard. The folks at CNBC seem to be especially capable of this. They claim to be speaking for "people out there" but in practicality are using their platform to voice their own concerns, which is fine...if you're not claiming to speak for me.

In reaction to "America's opinion" it seems to me that the majority of Americans are now fully aware of the problems we face and the negative externalities of nosediving aggregate demand, endless foreclosures and perpetual banking malaise. I sincerely doubt that most Americans with performing mortgages, jobs and adequate savings are worried about the govt intervening to help out under performing mortgages and the unemployed, regardless of how they got there. Why? Because the formers rose colored glasses no longer exists and it's the rare American who believes that they are untouchable by this crisis.

Ladies you should know....

Ladies take note...seriously it's important that you know these things!

-Men are NOT mind readers.

-Learn to work the toilet seat. You're a big girl. If it's up, put it down.

-Sunday football is like gravity. It's immutable so don't fight it.

-Ask for what you want. Hints do not work, just say it.

-Yes and no are perfectly acceptable answers to almost any of your questions.

-Come to us with a problem only if you want help solving it. Sympathy is what your girlfriends are for.

-Anything we said 6 months ago is inadmissible in an argument. In fact, all comments become null and void after 7 days.

-If you think you're fat, you probably are. Don't ask us too lie.

-If something we said can be interpreted two ways and one of the ways makes you sad or angry, we meant the other one .

-Whenever possible, please say whatever you have to say during commercials.

-We're making sure everything is still there. Yeah we know it is, but we just want to be sure.

-If we ask what is wrong and you say nothing, we will act like nothing's wrong.

-If you ask a question you don't want an answer to, expect an answer you don't want to hear.

-When we have to go somewhere, absolutely anything you wear is fine...Really.

-Don't ask us what we're thinking about unless you are prepared to discuss such topics as basketball or sex fantasies.

-You have enough clothes. You have enough shoes.

Really Roland?

Your hair splitting may prove technically accurate but in practicality this looks grimy and dishonest. But your problem is not that you engaged in grimmines and dishonesty (all statewide pols play that game) it's that you lack political skill to keep your public perception above it.

And that lack serves as exhibit A, B and C as to why you should not be a United States Senator. Fortunately for you the only people getting hurt will be Illinois citizens who, like us*, have only one functional senator during a time when states need the full power of their statewide triumvirates advocating on their behalf.

*Thanks Norm Coleman, those fruitless challenges and appeals sure are tasty. Can I have another please?

Russian Judge?

How does Dwight Howard dunk on a 12 FOOT HIGH RIM off of two feet with two hands and not win the dunk contest? While not the most athletic I was able to catch a couple backdoor alleys in college and even our most athletic, guys who could really elevate (40+ verticals), would have struggled with 11'.

On another note I'm glad the ultimate Russian Judge, MJ himself wasn't in attendance. That guy is a true player hater when it comes to judging. He totally player hated Howard two years ago and then gave some lame excuse for doing so.

Catch me when I fall

"If you don't have a banking system you don't have an economy." "And if you don't have order (an economy) you've got chaos."

dddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddd-Paul Kanjorski and Me

Like I've written previously TARP wasn't enacted to benefit Wall Street it was enacted to benefit you and I. We just see the benefits in our continued, albeit severely stunted, economic existence as opposed to cash like the banks. Paul Kanjorski, congressman from Pennsylvania, says what I and the economically literate have known for sometime about those few days in September. It was serious. It was TARP or run on the banks 2.0 style.

At the time I remember having a sobering conversation around the matter with my father, who asked me should he get out of paper and into gold. I told him if he ever had to buy gold as a barterer, as opposed to a speculator then God help us all. I advised that it was better to stay positioned in paper and take the short term hit than to contribute to a massive run on the banks that would collapse our economy. He did and we quickly rebalanced after the emotion had subsided.

What's interesting is that most American's have hopped on the populist bandwagon in an effort to deride the very govt efforts that certainly blunted the run on the banks. Their ignorance reminds me of my niece. When she was a little tyke I was tasked with baby sitting her which involved me following her around the house from room to room while she used her mouth to discover beds, shoes, closets and other common household items. After a literal turn of my head for a second I found her in an Usain Bolt-like charge towards a 15 flight staircase. In a moment I was able to grab her avoding the unthinkable tumble. When I pulled her up into my arms all she could do was giggle while my heart pounded through my chest. For her dangling on the precipice of grave injury was fun! Who knew. I realized it was only fun because she had NO IDEA how close she came to catastrophe (and how derelict I was in my duties). I think 99% of Americans fall into the same category. They have no idea.

Kanjorski tells us.


Credits:
Ballon Juice
SG White

Nadya Suleman

Originally I wasn't quite sure what to make of the octuplets story other than to defend the mother's right to have as many kids as she wants. But after the revelation that she is on state aid and is expecting additional aid for her octuplets, I am prepared to call her motives at the least irresponsible.

You shouldn't knowingly plan for additional children without at least giving some thought to how you will support them. I'm all for govt aid because it is necessary to help some people move forward, but I'm not certain I'm comfortable with people either gaming the system or not wanting to move forward.

LOS ANGELES - A big share of the financial burden of raising Nadya Suleman’s 14 children could fall on the shoulders of California’s taxpayers, compounding the public furor in a state already billions of dollars in the red.

Even before the 33-year-old single, unemployed mother gave birth to octuplets last month, she had been caring for her six other children with the help of $490 a month in food stamps, plus Social Security disability payments for three of the youngsters. The public aid will almost certainly be increased with the new additions to her family.

Vacuum for Valentine's

Ladies if your man gets you a vacuum cleaner for Valentine's day don't despair. What he is simply trying to say is "I would like to build a home with you." Or "feel free to come over my place anytime and clean it up."

I'm pretty sure it's one of the two.

Market down for the count!

Okay maybe not the count, but it's definitely on the mat searching for it's mouthpiece. The story will undoubtedly be "Geithener's plan sends market into swoon." But the truth is that about 5-6 sessions ago institutional traders (and probably some heavy heavy retailers) slowly but surely began pumping and priming the market towards it's current slightly elevated state, knowing FULL well that whatever Geithner presented would be flawed (hint: any plan is flawed) and that the market would selloff in fear. I imagaine the perks of running a trading desk is over time you have huge opportunities to move the market up and down in your favor, the bad thing about being a retail trader (like myself) is that essentially you have to try and game these guys by staying one step ahead or eating of their plates. Either one works!

Luckily, I've been through these precipitous drops twice now, and I'm more comfortable in gaming them. If I've said it once, I've said it once...gotta love shorts.

I don't love her, I try to tell myself

Me, my brother and 3 of our neighborhood buddies formed our own R&B group back in the late 80's. We used to practice our songs and dance moves in each others garages in preparation for our world tour. Looking back it was at once corny and the most awesome time of my life.

Let this be a lesson to all the kids out there. Never let the fact that you cannot sing and dance get in the way of your dream of becoming a singer and dancer!

The King and I

I'm not an economist, but I do have 6 hours of graduate economics and thus know one thing. Giving corporations tax cuts will not induce hiring, it won't create jobs. And it probably won't save them either. Companies scale to demand. This is immutable, regardless of what John McCain says.

What I don't understand is why Obama is having such a hard time pointing this out (hint: It must be that JD thing.) An elementary walk through the basics of trade and commerce would drive the point home to all those fooled into thinking giving Fortune 500's hundreds of millions of tax breaks will stem job losses or increase hiring. I imagine that walk as such:

1. Man open shop.

2. People buy stuff from man.

3. Man make money!

4. More people buy more stuff from man.

5. Man make more money! Need help.

6. Hire 3 neighbors. Pay with money he make.

7. Neighbors Happy : )

8. But wait. Many people now lose job, no buy much :(

9. Man no need much help. Fire 2 neighbors.

10. People lose more jobs. People scared world end. No buy nothing.

11. Man make very little money. Man scared too :O Man fire last neighbor.

12. King and Court tell man he no pay taxes this year.

13. Man genuflect. But Man no hire. And Man no spend.

14. Man save. Man unsure. Man know not what tomorrow....

This is exactly what will happen writ large when 50% of the stimulus is enacted as tax cuts. Man no spend. In general people don't act when they're scared they contra act or contract. In other words they shrink. Don't believe me? Look in the mirror and you'll see there's a 95% chance I'm right.

Returning to the example, imgaine if man did know what tomorrow 'brung'. What if the King put in advance orders for 18 consecutive months of the Man's stuff? Is the man going to hire his neighbors or leave the King orders unfilled and his gold on the table?

Barney Frank is Awesome!

I love Barney Frank. He fights. He fights. He fights.

Republicans are good...real good!

If we chalk this stimulus full of tax cuts at the expense of spending because the D's are too scared to LEAD and too scared to MAKE DECISIONS and too scared to SPEND, then the R's will have gotten major tax breaks for their constituents (wealthy and business) in spite of being the minority, and the leading party will have gotten nothing for their constituents and a pair of 2010 and 2012 defeats. This, all in spite of a majority revocation of those same minority policies the minority is advocating for.

Conservative policy is antithetical to a lot of what I stand for as a human but as an athlete their machinations are inline with my competitive spirit. The R's time and again outfox, out manipulate, outmaneuver and outplay their keystone cop opponents whether their playing at home or on the road. Always. And I'm getting tired of it.

BIG PICTURE

Dick Cheney

Cheney says that it's likely we'll be attacked again, and if so it's the new guys fault. I don't know...it kind of sounds like a guy who hopes we're attacked so he can be vindicated.

Kinda like the quarterback who, when benched, secretly hopes his team loses and the backup fails so that the fans and coaches will see all along that he was the man for the job.

I must say that as a former Fortune 100 CEO and VP of the USA it's pretty sad (and selfish) when you blow your chance and then place your vindication above the success of your teammates.

Really South Carolina Sheriff?

Going after Phelpsie?

I don't condone drug use but come on dude don't look so hard for you 15 mintues.

Uniteds States of Africa?

I read today that their is cursory talk among members of the African Union about a single, US style govt. For those of you who don't know the African Union, similar to it Asian and European counterparts, is a formal agreement between African countries to act in concert on a host of issues such as currency, security and development.

I always thought that Africa with it's massive population, agrarianism and abundance of natural resources could easily be a superpower if united. I also realize that the European colonist during the Scramble for Africa in the 1800's realized this too. That's why they purposely segmented Africa, encouraged tribalism and stoked civil wars upon their departure. By doing this they ensured Africans would engage in centuries of fighting over crumbs instead of simply baking their own dough. This mindest still persist.

Gaddafi, the president of Libya, is spearheading this effort, but I'm not quite sure what to think of this guy. As recently as 2 years ago he, the other Northern African nations and Turkey were begging the EU for membership based on the history of colonization. Their argument was as best I can tell 'that Europe owed them for the centuries of pillaging and angst.' That's a clownish, victim mindset...I think. Similar to Alaska or Texas, if France or Britain or Portugal wanted you as part of their nation they would have claimed you as citizens and not colonies at the turn of the last century. They didn't. And they haven't called you in 100 years. So it's pretty safe to assume they're not that into you. Move on.

I'm not sure Gaddafi is the guy for the job though. It's massive and the western politics may be more difficult than the intra-continental politics to overcome which would be a bear. I'm also not sure it happens without some kind of continental threat that forces the nations cooperation, from which grows the United States of Africa.

Silly populist bonuses are for incompetents!

Read and watch as Megan McCardle of The Atlantic and Erin Burnett of CNBC defend TARP funded institutions paying bonuses with taxpayer bread.

Please note I like both - Megan is uber-smart and Burnett gets me the news throughout my trading day - but it seems that they, like the Wall Street execs, are contending for perks in a world where Lehman's stock is at $56.92.

In that world, their defense of bonuses and private jets and lavish retreats are defended most staunchly by me - the capitalist progressive. But in a world where i-banks, their brethren (commercial banks) and cousins (large insurers) are feeding at the public trough then all bets are off. Burnett tries the weaksauce "left pocket, right pocket argument" but no dice.

When you and your wife move in with her parents hallway rug burns and kitchen table boom-boom are indefinitely on hold.

Ring King

I got back in the ring after a week off and it felt at once good and bad.

The good was mental. There is nothing that equates to the feeling you get when you out think an opponent and put on a nice combination - in good competitive spirit of course. Equally, yet not masochistically, it's also mentally refreshing to survive a furious onslaught with nose, eyes and kidneys intact.

The bad, is purely physical, but not in the way you may think. My head and body bloodied and bruised long ago have grown accustomed to assault, but protracted hands suddenly clinched into balls of pounding masses time and again seem to not have gotten that memo.