Oct 8, 2008

Debate Analysis


My debate analysis in 4 points

1. Townhall: This was a townhall? Seriously? This had about as much townhall as a reality show has real. The scripted questions, limited follow-up and verbosity of the candidates overall made for a very uninteresting debate. I thought Brokaw and his letter of the law moderation really put a lid on two guys who were ready to give us some good moments of back and forth. I really miss Tim Russert, I am certain he would’ve loved to get a shot at moderating a real debate with these two.

2. McCain: He seems a little uncomfortable being onstage with Obama and it shows in his movement, body language and phrasing. I wondered out loud last night if the irascibility that America is seeing is due in no small part to his strong desire for the office. The guy withstood a barrage of crappy campaigning by Bush in 2000, when it was clear he was the best chose for the Republicans. He held his tongue and made nice for 8 years, passing up a chance to run with Kerry as veep…that’s eight years of waiting your turn and then out of nowhere this young dude shows up and has him flustered and on his heels. I have to think that situation would wear on anybody; I also have to think a professional pol, as McCain is, would have the skill to hide that.

3. Obama: I actually wasn’t very fond of his first debate performance and thought that he may be in trouble this time because Mac is a townhall pro, but from the outset it was clear he was here to play. I loved the AIG card he pulled out, one that I had just found out about hours earlier (that’s pretty ridiculous AIG execs if you’re reading). He seemed to connect with the audience in a way I thought McCain, due to his extensive townhall experience would do. The guy has demeanor about him that exudes both confidence and calmness. He looks like a winner and I'm not sure he knows what he’s in for over the next 3 weeks, but at this point sans political views it is pretty clear he is the best choice.

4. Policy: Nothing new here on either side except for the fact that McCain would have his Treasury Sec exercise the provisions in the TARP bill that allows for purchasing and reneg of the troubled mortgages to stabilize the housing market. However, since TARP is only authorized for up to 700B USD, it is inconceivable that we can do that AND buy the bad assets from the bank. I imagine the banking lobby that supports McCain can’t be too happy about that proposal since it would tie them to a segment of their customer base that they no longer want anything to do with. Since he was clearly looking for part of the economic issue he could make his own, I would have thought a better option would be to suggest a provision that allows for pushing the loans out 40 years and reset everyone’s interest rate, even those who are not delinquent or in danger. I understand what he was trying to do, his advisors and rightfully so have told him we need to find a bottom and then from that bottom a new healthy operating range (hint it won’t be the range of 2004-2006) but I’m not sure just reneging mortgages of delinquents does that.