Nov 14, 2008

Auto Bailout: Here we go again!

I realize there are a lot of complexities both large and small crowding this argument. I also realize that my view is limited and I’m on the outside looking in. Lastly, I also realize that in the end there is really no right answer, other than something drastic must be done.

Unions: I’m an MBA and a consultant so my natural inclination, needless to say, isn't necessarily with unions. Now, to fully grasp the need for the UAW you have to realize that they and unions in general, came about when workers were treated like crap by their employers, in which case no one can fault them for unionizing. I realize that in the past the UAW has conceded a lot to GM mgmt in negotiations and are probably not interested in doing it again…my advice is they better. We are going to be a in a very bad recession, and even before the economy turned nasty GM wasn’t in the strongest position relative to their competitors, specifically Toyota. The UAW is the LARGEST stakeholder in GM (tens of thousands of jobs), so there really is never much reason to pout. If UAW isn’t getting it in some form of deferred comp or bonus structure for their guys on the other end, when times are good, well that’s the fault of the UAW’s (not GMs) management.

GM Mgmt: Rick Wagoner has been the CEO of General Motors for 8 years, he was admittedly responsible for stifling innovation including the electric and hybrid cars that could have been a HUGE life saver for them right now. And I have to repeat this, he has been at the helm for 8 YEARS. I’ve had fair exposure to senior execs over the last 4 years, and I’ll be the first to admit that there job isn’t all press conference, afternoon golf and marquis jets…it’s hard being a CEO even at firms like Google or Nike where things have been rosy for a while. But the point is he is paid very well to succeed and when you don’t you have to go. He’s a Ivy Leaguer, but unfortunately he hasn’t cut the mustard. The board should have let this guy go a long time ago. Plus a contract is a two way street and part of his job is to look towards the future. HE was the one that signed off on the contract with the UAW, if he didn’t like the terms he should have played hardball…he didn’t, you can’t be angry at the union for holding their end of the bargain. They contracted to build you cars and you agreed to pay them, don’t be upset with them doing what they signed up for.

Govt: Not sure where the bailouts…err…loans stop. I’m concerned about this whole “too big too fail” meme that is rearing its ugly head about once a month now. There are a number of firms in various industries whose tentacles and financial influence is widespread and indirect not only throughout the country but the globe. Are each of these firms too big too fail? What happens in September of next year, when Wal-Mart is nearing collapse do we bail them out? If so, then how do we determine it’s okay to let Target go bust? Are the fictional soon to be unemployed workers from Target and their families any less deserving than those from Wal-Mart of a paycheck? The question is rhetorical, and designed to illustrate that no one likes to hear of people losing their jobs and we know the human toll is grievous. I’m in favor of this mainly because all of the arguments I’m hearing really do underscore GM’s too big too fail status. But part of me hates to reward Wagoner’s poor decision making with 25B dollars.

Oh yeah a little note for all of the Big 3, since humongous gas guzzlers run on loads of fuel, and the world's fuel supply is rapidly deteriorating at the same time the number of motorized vehicles coming online is increasing exponentially it's probably not advisable to continue to try to make these, since it is unlikely that the people who buy cars will want to buy them, due to their cost of ownership (gas)....just a thought, take it as free advice.