Recently a friend and I discussed O's chances at being a two termer. He believes it will happen. Me, not so much. At the moment people are sympathetic to his inheriting a crappy situation. But people are fickle. And moments are fleeting.
With Geithner's first allocation of the TARP v1.5 O will officially be responsible (this is how leadership works.) He may be able to play the Bush out of Jail Free Card once in the subsequent six months, but after that no dice.
The good news is the tectonic shift in the economy provides cover to stall on his campaign promises of higher taxes and healthcare, without angering his base...or at least those who understand economics and finance.
This will allow him to concentrate on just one thing. 6.5. Most people expect unemployment to touch 10 percent by early 2010. If O's monetary and fiscal policy - coupled with a fortuitous bounce in private industry - can cut that by 3.5 points no later than July 2012 he'll win regardless of what campaign promises went unfulfilled.
If it's between 6.5 - 7.5 and the R's have another McCain on tap O may be able to squeak one out on pure talent alone.
If it's between 6.5 - 7.5 and the R's are running a stalwart, O's toast.
If it's higher than 7.5 and the R's are running Joe the Plumber, O's toast.
