Apr 19, 2009

On Markets

I've been thinking for a couple weeks that we were simply in a bear market rally and we would soon return to what has been a normal status over the last six months - panicked selling. But alas after the first full week of earnings the market finds itself in pretty decent shape (above 800 DOW and 850 S&P) and the banks, at least the majors, are propping up pretty well so I'm ready to declare this bear market over (he says the day before the worst selloff in market history).

I know that the majors are benefiting from wildly usurious arb rates (borrowing money at little costs, selling at at ridiculous costs - see your last credit card bill rate) but nonetheless they are at least reporting better and surprising to the upside or less downside I should say which is a good thing in this milieu.

On a personal note the lack of volatility isn't necessarily a good thing for me, but I've developed a pretty good strategy for trading the markets in a mildly calm phase so we'll see. Unlike most traders, I would rather we have a stable market where people's 401ks are returning to normal than have a volatile market where I'm making out like a bandit but 50 and 60 year old retirees are thinking about eating catfood...guess I could never make it on the real Wall Street.

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